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FX OUTLOOK: 2018 Will Be the Year of the Yen

Traders Magazine Online News, February 26, 2018

John D'Antona Jr.

Twenty eighteen is going to be the Year of the Yen.

So says BNP Paribas Asset Management’s deputy head of currencies, Momtchil Pojarliev, who recently shared his recent trading note with Traders Magazine on the yen.

“2018 will, in our view, be the year of the Japanese yen,” Pojarliev began. “The Japanese yen will appreciate due to a potential adjustment in the policy by the Bank of Japan and higher financial market volatility.”

Also, he added that the Japanese yen is one of the cheapest currencies in the world

In his note, Pojarliev begins by stating that 2017 was a disappointing year for currency investors. The consensus view for a stronger US dollar following the US elections did not materialize. The US dollar peaked at the beginning of the year at 1.04 against the euro and at 118 against the Japanese Yen, and finished the year as the worst performing currency. The euro was the best performing currency, outperforming both the US dollar and the Japanese yen by more than 10%. Stronger economic growth in the Eurozone has been singled out as the most important driver for the euro outperformance in 2017. Emerging market currencies did even better, with the Polish zloty and the Czech koruna outperforming the US dollar by more than 20%. Even the Turkish lira, despite all the political turmoil, outperformed the greenback.

“In terms of expectations, investors are starting 2018 with the opposite US dollar view compared to last year,” he told Traders Magazine. “This time the consensus is for a weakening US dollar. The arguments are that US asset valuations are at record highs so capital flows will leave the US and go into other countries (and boost foreign currencies), that US twin deficits are widening driven by the fiscal stimulus, and finally that the US is reengaging with a weak dollar policy similarly to 1994-1995.”

Is this consensus view going to suffer in the same way as it did in 2017 (i.e. US dollar will be stronger, or are the majority of the commentators going to be right this time)? In particular, the EUR/USD exchange rate remains in focus, with 1.30 being a popular target.

“In our view, focusing on EUR/USD is similar to Kylo Ren fighting Luke Skywalker in the movie “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”. In the eighth main installment of the Star War franchise, Luke appears to confront the First Order to enable surviving Resistance members to escape,” Pojarliev said. “Kylo orders the First Order’s forces to fire on Luke but to no effect. He then engages Luke in a lightsaber duel and strikes the Jedi only to realize that he has been fighting Luke’s Force projection. Kylo wasted precious time, which enabled the surviving resistance members to escape. Investors might be wasting precious time focusing entirely on EUR/USD.”

The reason is that even the most bullish projections are only calling for euro at 1.30 by the end of the year. Given that euro was at 1.25 just recently and that the one year forward rate was at 1.28, this implies an appreciation of less than 2%.

So, what should be investors be focusing on in 2018?

Pojarliev said it’s his view that the Japanese yen can easily be the top performer among the G-10 currencies and can do better than both the euro and the US dollar.

First, for the past two years Japan’s economy has been expending above its potential growth rate. “Wage growth remains lackluster and the Bank of Japan remains dovish for now, but this means that the next policy shift can only be hawkish. Second, the Japanese yen is one of the cheapest currencies in the world,” he said.

Third, the return of financial market uncertainty is supportive for the Japanese yen, which traditionally rises in periods of equity stress. After the last five years of falling volatility, rising stock markets and falling global bond yields, the recent market turmoil might persist for longer than expected. 

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