Big banks are getting bigger – in the foreign exchange markets.
The five largest FX dealers by market share are Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citi, Barclays, and J.P. Morgan. Together, these banks captured approximately 53 percent of global trading volume in 2013, according to data from Greenwich Associates. That share was up from 48 percent in 2012 and 45 percent in 2011.
As recently as 2005, the top five dealers controlled as little as 39% of global trading volume.
Forex trading volumes are consolidating in the hands of the world’s biggest FX dealers – a trend that, if not offset by countervailing factors, could over time reduce the number of competitors in this massive and essential market.
That’s the outlook according to a new report from Greenwich Associates titled, “Biggest FX Dealers Amassing Dominant Market Share.” The report sheds light on the combination of a slowdown in trading volumes and the loss of market share to larger rivals that is making it difficult for many dealers to sustain the level of volume required to support their costly infrastructures and maintain profitability.
The $5.4 trillion currency market has been traditionally dominated by the biggest banks – those that can afford to have a global presence and those that can keep up with the increased electronification of trading. Given the oligopoly that exists in this still somewhat opaque market it’s no wonder the players in the sector are only getting bigger and grabbing more market share.
Many of these Top 5 gains have come at the expense of the leading dealers’ closest competitors. The combined market share of dealers ranked 6 to 10 in the global market dropped to 22 percent in 2013 from a peak of 27 percent in 2011. Dealers ranked 11 to 20 also experienced significant declines.
“Several factors are contributing to the growing market share of the top dealers, including higher costs of capital, increasing incentives to clear, the breakdown of the traditional fixing process, and the expanding use of technology,” said Kevin McPartland, head of research for market structure and technology at Greenwich Associates.
And this trend of fewer banks controlling the FX mart is only going to continue, he added, in the short-term.
The main trends driving business to the largest dealers-growth in electronic trading, increases in capital costs, growing incentives to clear-will remain in place over the short term and Greenwich expects this concentration of FX trading to continue for at least the next 6 to12 months, McPartland said.
“While FX volumes have recently rebounded, it’s not clear yet whether volatility and volume improvement are here to stay. This remains the biggest wildcard for FX market structure change, and therefore changes to the competitive landscape. “A more active market means more dealer revenue to go around for everyone,” McPartland said.
