(Bloomberg) — You cant say that David Kostin didnt warn us that 2015 was going to be one boring year for U.S. stock market returns.
How boring is it, you ask? (Presuming, that is, youre old enough to remember Johnny Carson.)
So boring that CSPAN should probably add a market correspondent.
So boring that Kenny G and Bruce Hornsby should think about collaborating on a new theme song for this market.
So boring that …. aww, heck, lets turn to Goldmans strategist Kostin to give us some of the real reasons:
This week our Sentiment Indicator reads 42 on a scale from 0 to 100, its ninth consecutive week between 30 and 60, he wrote. The steady, neutral reading confirms the signals conveyed by low trading volumes, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, and client conversations, which all suggest the current equity trading environment is boring.
How boring is it? So boring that the most-exciting market story going around is about the random (albeit uncanny) coincidence that U.S. stocks almost always fall a lot after a horse wins a Triple Crown! So boring that some of the most interesting topics of conversation have been about how boring it is: U.S. stocks are trading in the tightest range in 21 years! Its so boring that theres a Twitter hashtag, #summertrading, but its all too boring to even trend.
How boring is it? As Kostin writes: The dispersion of stock returns continues to rank in the bottom percentile of the past 35 years. And Kostins steadfast year-end forecast of 2,100 for the Standard & Poors 500 Index implies more boring times ahead.
The worst part about it is how exciting things are overseas, and in other asset classes.
Locust, Frogs
Its not boring in the bond market, where the commentary makes it sounds like the Masters of the Universe are all stocking up on canned goods and firewood to prepare for locusts, frogs, wild animals and possibly flies.
Its not boring in China, where a portfolio showing a 150 percent gain over the past 12 months means the fund managers will have to explain why theyre trailing the benchmark.
Its not boring in Europe, where Germanys DAX Index has entered a correction with a 10 percent drop and, according to Credit Suisse, the elevated macro risk thats been priced into the European volatility markets is being echoed in correlations, with Euro Stoxx 500 Index one-month implied correlations surging to 80 percent, the highest since the sovereign debt crisis in 2011. Which, despite how boring it sounds, means things are pretty exciting over there!
So is the era of American stock-market exceptionalism and sensationalism over? Or will the excitement in other markets catch up to U.S. equities like the climax of an old-fashioned summer blockbuster action flick?
Its all too boring to even think about.
