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US Economic Outlook Survey, End-Year 2018

Traders Magazine Online News, December 25, 2018

John D'Antona Jr.

The Economy:

SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable forecasted that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.9 percent in 2018 and by 2.6 percent in 2019, unchanged from its mid-year predictions.

Monetary Policy:

All but one of the respondents expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise its target rate range by 25 basis points (bps) at the December 18-19, 2018 meeting to 2.25 to 2.50 percent from the current 2.00 to 2.25 percent range. For 2019, respondents continued to be divided in their predictions for rate hikes: the most oft-cited prediction was two rate hikes (45 percent), followed by three or four hikes (32 percent), one rate hike (10 percent) and no hike (5 percent).

The report also includes forecasts concerning the employment outlook, tax policy, and USMCA implications, among other issues.

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