Free Site Registration

Fund Managers and Strategists Think the Bull Market Is Ending Next Year

Traders Magazine Online News, July 31, 2017

John D'Antona Jr.

Could this year be the last call for the bulls?

America’s second-longest bull run in stocks on record will end by late 2018, when U.S. credit also will enter its first bear market since the global crisis, according to a Bloomberg survey of fund managers and strategists.

In an article on Bloomberg, a poll of 30 finance professionals on four continents showed a lack of consensus on the asset judged as most vulnerable now, with answers ranging from European high yield to local-currency emerging-market debt -- though they were mostly in the bond world. Among 25 responding to a question on the next U.S. recession, the median answer was the first half of 2019.

The would-be end of a great cycle for financial markets would come just about when central bank balance sheet contraction is expected to kick into high gear. By mid-2018, the Federal Reserve’s wind-down may be well under way, and the European Central Bank might have joined the Bank of Japan in tapering asset purchases.

While none of the respondents signaled a 2007-09 style meltdown, even smaller-scale downturns have wreaked large-scale damage in the past. The 2002 bear market in U.S. stocks wiped out more than $7 trillion of value.

“Consequences could be very painful,” Remi Olu-Pitan, who manages a multi-asset fund at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in London, told Bloomberg. “We have had a liquidity-fueled bull market. If that is taken away, there is a pressure point,” she said.

To read the complete article, please click here

For more information on related topics, visit the following channels:

Comments (0)

Add Your Comments:

You must be registered to post a comment.

Not Registered? Click here to register.

Already registered? Log in here.

Please note you must now log in with your email address and password.