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RETAIL QUICK TAKE: Three Reasons for Investors to be Cheerful in 2019
Traders Magazine Online News, January 4, 2019
The New Year promises three key tailwinds that will help positively drive returns for investors, according to one CEO at an independent financial advisory organization.
Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, also told Traders Magazine that there are clear headwinds on the horizon that could weigh on investor outcomes.
“It appears that 2019 is set to deliver decent returns to those invested with a properly diversified portfolio,” Green began. “There are three key tailwinds that will, I believe, help drive positive investor returns.”
First, following stock market falls in recent months, Green said that valuations are attractive in many sectors and countries, relative to the returns on cash and likely corporate earnings growth. Emerging markets in particular are offering value.
“Second, global growth expectations have been reduced in recent months. But with global GDP growth in 2019 likely to be 3.0% plus, we expect continued corporate profits growth in many of the major economies and in particular the U.S.,” Green continued. “In addition, the Federal Reserve has signaled that next year’s planned interest rate hikes may be delayed if economic data weakens, which last week’s relatively modest payrolls data and November’s inflation data suggests is the case. Should the Fed push back raising rates, this will help support the U.S., and therefore global, economy.”
Lastly, Green said the world’s financial system is in a much better condition. Banks and other financial institutions have significantly enhanced their capital levels over the last decade, making them more capable to withstand defaults on loans.
“Whilst these factors can be expected to boost investor outcomes in 2019, there are also issues that may do the opposite,” Green added. “The main headwinds that could drag on investor returns include the ongoing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies; higher Treasury yields, which will raise the risk-free rate of capital; higher inflation; and the uncertainty of Brexit.”
Green concluded that history teaches that stock markets go up over the long term, so he would urge investors to remain invested.
“No-one wants to miss out on returns. But investors need to ensure that their portfolios are well diversified, meaning across asset classes, sectors, regions and even currencies,” he said. “This is the best way to mitigate risk and take advantage of the important and rewarding opportunities.”
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