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Bull Trading on Delusions

Traders Magazine, January 2004

Kathryn M. Welling

If I hadn't learned, the hard way, in the late 1990s, that Lord Keynes was entirely correct to suggest that markets can stay irrational far longer than investors can stay solvent, I might be tempted to do something foolish, like call a top. Instead, I called Justin Mamis. My mission: to find out what clues his gimlet eye for technical trends and his vast experience in the market were providing him. What I found was a portrait of the analyst as a frustrated man. The "good" news, Justin relays, is his wife's observation that his is the rare sort of frustration that has always, in the past, heralded truly significant changes in market trends. The bad news is not only that the change will likely be in a significantly negative direction, but that nothing he watches is giving Justin a clue on timing. -KMW

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