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Gathering Storm Clouds

Traders Magazine, March 2001

Kathryn M. Welling

David Levy, who with his father, S. Jay Levy, publishes the Levy Institute Forecast, is not the sort of economist who waffles. Yes, he was early in forecasting that the economy would stumble. But now, while most dismal scientists still cling to the fence, his call is dismally unhedged: "The U.S. economy is in the early stages of a recession that will prove unusually severe and long."

The reason: as David runs through all the many and various factors that are affecting the business climate, from labor trends to the financial and political environment, he just can't come up with any reasonable scenarios that will produce a pick-up in profits and the economy, at least until next year.

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